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OCTOBER 17,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

AWOL – It didn't take long for Obama's new Ebola czar to absent himself.  From Breitbart:  "Ron Klain, the newly-appointed 'Ebola Czar' for Barack Obama's administration, did not attend a White House meeting Friday discussing the federal response to the domestic threat of the deadly Ebola virus."  Off to a great start.  Imagery is important in government and Klain, who is essentially a political operative, should have known better and been there.  His absence reflects the lack of urgency of the president who appointed him.

KENTUCKY TILTING RIGHT – From Gallup:  "WASHINGTON, D.C. -- A series of disheartening figures could make Democratic Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes' attempt to unseat Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell all the more difficult. Kentuckians are now more likely to identify as or lean toward Republicans (45%) than Democrats (39%). In the prior six years, Gallup found Democrats held at least a slight advantage.  The six-percentage-point edge favoring Republicans, based on interviewing conducted in Kentucky from January through June of this year, underscores the uphill battle Grimes faces in trying to unseat McConnell. And given typical Republican advantages in voter turnout, the Democratic deficit on partisanship among those Kentucky residents who actually turn out to vote may be even greater than six points."  It's going our way, but only the votes cast on election day or by absentee ballot are the only decisions that will count.

WHOOPS – First it was Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, Senate candidate from Kentucky, who messed up by refusing to say whether she'd voted for Obama.  Now it's incumbent Senator Kay Hagan, who has a narrow lead in North Carolina in a desperate attempt to keep her seat, who has egg on her face.  From the Weekly Standard:  "Democratic senator Kay Hagan of North Carolina was emphatic earlier this week that instituting a travel ban on those attempting to enter the United States from West African nations ravaged by the Ebola virus was 'not going to help solve the problem.'  Hagan's Republican opponent, Thom Tillis, had been one of the first candidates for office to suggest the ban.  But in a statement released Friday afternoon by her official Senate office, Hagan appears to have changed her mind.  'I have said for weeks that travel restrictions should be one part of a broad strategy to prevent Ebola from spreading in the U.S. and fighting it in Africa,' said Hagan in her statement. 'I am calling on the Administration to temporarily ban the travel of non-U.S. citizens from the affected countries in West Africa. Although stopping the spread of this virus overseas will require a large, coordinated effort with the international community, a temporary travel ban is a prudent step the President can take to protect the American people, and I believe he should do so immediately.'"  Guess she read the polls.  A candidate of conviction.

MAJOR FINANCIAL NEWS – From the Washington Times:  "President Obama came perilously close to having to wash some dishes on his recent trip to New York.  Mr. Obama revealed Friday that his credit card was rejected when he went to pay for his meal at a New York restaurant during the U.N. General Assembly gathering last month.  'Turns out I guess I don’t use it enough,' so the payment wouldn’t go through, Mr. Obama explained.   'Apparently they thought there was some fraud going on,' Mr. Obama joked at a meeting Friday with employees of the Consumer Financial Protection Board, adding that 'even I am affected' by the difficulties of dealing with the American financial system."  He handles his job the same way.

October 17,  2014     Permalink

WHAA..? – AT 11:46 A.M. ET:  Look, I don't want to knock the guy, but is this the chap a president picks for a critical job at a critical time?  From Fox: 

Responding to growing calls to appoint an "Ebola czar" to lead America's battle against the deadly virus, sources confirm to Fox News that President Obama plans to name Ron Klain, a longtime political hand with no apparent medical or health care background.

He did, however, serve as chief of staff to Al Gore and later Vice President Biden.

In making the appointment, Obama will effectively bypass another official, Dr. Nicole Lurie, who has served as assistant secretary for preparedness and response (ASPR) at the Department of Health and Human Services since July 2009.

Congress, nearly a decade ago, created that post, which would seem to fit the bill for Ebola coordinator -- at least on paper.

COMMENT:  This is absurd, and it shows the contempt that Obama has for the intelligence and feelings of the American people.  This is a moment when you appoint a star, someone of great prestige and vast knowledge.  The appointment of a political operative sends the message that the most important job the Ebola czar will have will be to protect the president.  Of course, in Obama's mind, that would be the most important job.

We have so many problems as a nation, and look who we have as president.

October 17,  2014     Permalink

OH SWELL – AT 9:31 A.M. ET:  We used to say that the nightmare scenario in the Mideast was WMD falling into the hands of terrorist groups.  The nightmare appears to be going live.  From International Business Times: 

International Business Times – According to a recent report published in the journal Middle East Review of International Affairs, or MERIA, militants of the Islamic State group used chemical weapons, including mustard gas, against Kurdish fighters in the Syrian border town of Kobani during their first attempt to capture the town in July.

The report, which is based on testimonies from eyewitnesses on the ground, said that the chemical weapons had been transferred to the Syrian province of Raqqa from a Saddam Hussein-era chemical weapons facility located near the Iraqi capital of Baghdad. The report has prompted fears that ISIS could have access to vast stockpiles of chemical weapons, including sarin, mustard gas, and VX, a nerve agent.

COMMENT:  While this story cannot be independently verified, there have been a number like it, saying pretty much the same thing.  So much for the myth that there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. It's time for a full Congressional investigation on the status of WMD in the Mideast, although I wonder if the Obamans would cooperate in any meaningful way.  Remember that the "narrative" of the left is that George W. Bush lied about Iraqi WMD to justify our invasion of Iraq in 2003.  I don't think the left, and its journalistic allies, will want to give up that narrative.

October 17, 2014       Permalink

TURKEY STRIKES OUT – AT 9:12 A.M. ET:  Turkey has failed in its bid to become a member of the UN Security Council.  From USA Today: 

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — Turkey failed in its effort to join the U.N.'s most powerful body on Thursday, while Venezuela, New Zealand, Spain, Angola and Malaysia were elected to coveted Security Council seats.

Special attention had been on Turkey as it is under growing pressure to do more about the war in Syria pushing up against its border. Turkey lobbied heavily among the General Assembly's 193 member states for their votes, with its foreign minister hosting a party at the iconic Waldorf Astoria hotel the night before the vote.

Shows you how serious the UN is.  A party for a vote.

In competition with New Zealand and Spain for two seats representing the western group of nations, Turkey fell behind as New Zealand easily gained a seat on the first ballot and Spain made it on the third.

"We could not abandon our principles for the sake of getting more votes," Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in comments carried by the state-run Anadolu Agency.

The five winners will join the Security Council on Jan. 1 and serve through 2016 as non-veto-wielding members. They will replace Argentina, Australia, Luxembourg, South Korea and Rwanda.

On balance, it's a losing proposition.  Some of the new members – Venezuela and Malaysia in particular, are problematical, Venezuela dramatically so.  No new member is an American ally with the loyalty of Australia and South Korea.  But we have a veto on the Security Council, and I hope President Hope and Change is willing to use it.

With Venezuela's victory, Russia and China will likely gain an ally on key international issues that have put them at odds with the three Western permanent council members — the U.S., Britain and France. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has close ties with Syria's President Bashar Assad and Iran and has strongly supported Russia in the Ukraine crisis.

COMMENT:  At least Turkey didn't get rewarded for its eccentric behavior and increasingly Islamic stance.  Be thankful for small victories.

October 17, 2014       Permalink

SABATO PREDICTS – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  Political pundit Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia makes his predictions for the Senate.  From centerforpolitics.org: 

Our projection remains a five-to-eight seat Republican gain in the Senate, and with less than three weeks to go we would much rather be holding the cards Republicans have been dealt versus the ones dealt to the Democrats as both sides play for a Senate majority. Despite the likelihood of two runoffs, it’s not impossible to imagine the GOP having a good enough night that they get to 51 seats without Georgia or Louisiana: That would mean holding all of their present seats (minus Georgia, at least on Election Day) and capturing (in order of least to most GOP difficulty) Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota, Arkansas, Alaska, Iowa, and Colorado. That would represent a great night for the GOP, and they have at least a decent chance in all seven races (North Carolina could be the eighth).

That said, a month ago the Republican position looked much stronger in Georgia and Kansas (states they already hold), as well as South Dakota (a seat that until recently looked like an easy pick-up). Republicans could and probably should win all three, even if it takes them until January to do so in the Peach State. But 2014 has been a crazy enough election that one of these seats could possibly slip through the GOP’s fingers.

COMMENT:  Once again the Republican problem, if there is one, is losing in states where they should easily win.  Who would have thought Kansas and South Dakota would go wobbly?  And there are states where Republicans only lead by a point or two, like Iowa. 

This will probably be close.  The Senate could go either way.  If the Democrats do retain control, they'd have to hold all or almost all of their senators to get major legislation passed or Supreme Court nominees confirmed.  That may be difficult or impossible, as senators would no longer owe anything to lame-duck President Barack Obama.

October 17,  2014     Permalink

OCTOBER 16,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:53 P.M. ET: 

WARNING – From Fox:  "The State Department is warning American businesses operating in North Africa of an increased risk of retaliation by militants over the U.S. military campaign against the Islamic State. The warning, which is specific to Morocco, is contained in an Oct. 7 dispatch -- obtained by Fox News -- from the Bureau of Diplomatic Security and its Overseas Security Advisory Council.  While no specific plot or credible intelligence is cited, the message warns that: 'As the U.S. Government extends its anti-ISIL efforts, there is a heightened risk that U.S. private sector and civilian interests may be targeted.'"  I hope this is taken seriously.  We have many, many "soft" targets in the Mideast, especially in the oil-rich countries.

NATURALLY – From Hollywood Reporter:  "As the Ebola virus continues to dominate the headlines, producer Lynda Obst and director-producer Ridley Scott are bringing the deadly pathogen to the small screen with a limited series for Fox TV Studios based on Richard Preston's 1994 nonfiction best-seller The Hot Zone.  For the past year, the pair quietly has been working on the property, which they optioned two decades ago and never let lapse, hiring Jeff Vintar (I, Robot) to adapt. But the project became incredibly timely a few months ago when the current outbreak — the deadliest manifestation of the disease to date — began to emerge in West Africa. Ebola has ravaged several countries in Africa, killing some 4,400, and has since spread to the United States, claiming one victim in Texas."  Two talented producers.  Might be good.  I hope it's responsible.

THE PUBLIC IS RIGHT – Douglas MacArthur once said that all military disasters begin with two words:  too late.  Apparently, the American people agree.  From Fox:  "With ISIS now moving on Baghdad, majorities of U.S. voters think President Obama 'waited too long to take action' against the extremists, and disapprove of the way he’s dealing with the group, according to the latest Fox News national poll.  By a 57-34 percent margin, voters say Obama 'waited too long' to take action against ISIS.   That’s almost identical to the negative rating the president receives for his handling of the Islamic extremist group: 57 percent disapprove vs. 33 percent approve.  A majority of Democrats approve of Obama on ISIS (56 percent), while larger majorities of independents (65 percent) and Republicans (81 percent) disapprove.  Nearly four in 10 Democrats think Obama waited too long to act on ISIS (39 percent), and a large 80-percent majority of Republicans and 58 percent of independents agree."  It is remarkable to note the extent to which Dems have remained loyal to the captain of their Titanic.

JIMMY'S UPSET – From Reuters:  "US democracy watchdog The Carter Center has closed its Egypt office and says it will no longer monitor the country's parliamentary elections due to an increasingly restrictive political environment.  Egypt's parliamentary elections should be held within six months of the presidential election but a date for the polls has yet to be set. Former army chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi was elected as president in May.  The Carter Center cited the mass arrests of Muslim Brotherhood supporters, the passage of a law that severely curbs the freedom to protest, and moves to tighten the application of a law governing civil society organizations."  Strange.  Hamas doesn't seem to bother Jimmy Carter.  Nor does the Muslim Brotherhood.  I guess the Egyptian government is just too pro-American for our Nobel peace laureate.

October 16, 2014       Permalink

EVEN THE DEMS – AT 10:41 A.M. ET:   As Obama's lethargic war against the Islamic state wanders on, even some Democrats are getting fed up.  There are still some old-style pro-defense Democrats left in the party, although they're disappearing fast.  From The Hill: 

The White House’s argument that its strategy against Islamic militants is “succeeding” is getting bad reviews from Democrats.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest on Tuesday said that the early evidence on President Obama’s strategy against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria “indicates that this strategy is succeeding.”

The comments raised eyebrows — even among supporters of the White House — given advances ISIS fighters have made on Baghdad in recent days.

“In general, I support what the president is trying to do in the region right now, but in no way shape or form can their handling of ISIS be defined as a success,” said Democratic strategist Jim Manley, who had previously served as a spokesman to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.)

Other Democrats interpreted Earnest’s comments as projecting confidence in the fight, but warned they could have negative political reverberations for the White House.

“The danger is in looking as though you're out of touch, or underestimating the threat — especially given the criticism President Obama has already taken for calling ISIS the ‘JV team,’” said Democratic strategist Christy Setzer.

COMMENT:  The Democrats are seeing the new rise of the "security moms and dads" out there, such as we saw after the 9-11 attacks.  The sheer brutality of the Islamic State has awakened at least some Americans.  But remember that the base of the party is still off to the left.

October 16, 2014       Permalink

ARE HISPANICS SOURING ON DEMS? – AT 10:18 A.M. ET:  One part of conventional political wisdom holds that Hispanic voters will vote Democratic.  Generally, they do.  But it's been pointed out that George W. Bush, when he was governor of Texas, regularly got a good chunk of the Hispanic vote.  Now Michael Barone examines whether Hispanics are losing their feeling for the Democratic Party.  From the Washington Examiner: 

It’s looking like a tough offyear election for Democrats, with their Senate majority at serious risk and their chances of gaining House seats down toward zero.

Every party has a bad offyear sometimes; Republicans did in 2006. Sooner or later they recover. But in the crosstabs of polls and in party strategists’ moves I see evidence that one group Democrats have been counting on is moving away from them: Hispanics.

Hispanics voted 71 percent for Barack Obama in 2012, 20 points above his national average of 51 percent. According to Gallup, Hispanics’ latest Obama job approval has sunk to 44 percent, just 3 points above the national average.

You probably haven’t heard much about this because Hispanics are scarce in all but one of the states with serious Senate races this year.

The one exception is Colorado, where the 2012 exit poll said 14 percent of voters were Hispanic. Non-Hispanic whites there voted 54 to 44 percent for Mitt Romney. But Hispanics voted 75 to 23 percent for Barack Obama, providing all of his popular vote margin and more.

In the last decade liberals have surged to victories in all top-of-the-ticket races in a state that once seemed safely Republican. This year that chain may well be broken. Incumbent Sen. Mark Udall trails Republican Rep. Cory Gardner in the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls and is at 44 percent, well below 50. Incumbent Gov. John Hickenlooper leads former Rep. Bob Beauprez by only 0.4 percent.

And...

Evidently issues dear to the heart of affluent gentry liberals — gun control, environmental restrictions, abortion absolutism — are not all that appealing to many Hispanic voters. Another example: Abortion absolutist Wendy Davis lost 26 Hispanic counties to a nuisance candidate in Texas’s May Democratic primary. Some Hispanics own guns, others seek work in industries shut down by environmentalists.

COMMENT:  That is good news, but Republicans must make direct appeals to the Hispanic community to build momentum.  Historically, Republicans have done a poor job reaching out to minorities.  That must change, given American demographics. 

Recent polling showed that Hispanics aren't wedded to the Democratic Party.  Let us, as sinners, arrange for the divorce.

October 16, 2014        Permalink

ASSAULT ON OUR FREEDOMS – AT 9:14 A.M. ET:   We are seeing more and more of these stories – an assault on free speech on our college campuses, almost always instigated by the leftists who run these deeply flawed institutions.  This one takes some kind of prize.  From Fox: 

Four Southern Oregon University students claim university officials threatened to call the police and take disciplinary action against them last week after they passed out free copies of the U.S. Constitution and asked other students to sign a petition to end limitations on areas where students can demonstrate.

The demonstrators, who are affiliated with Students for Concealed Carry, a student-run, nonpartisan national organization that advocates for the right to carry concealed handguns on college campuses, said they were standing on a sidewalk passing out Constitutions when school officials told them they had to move. The students also asked classmates to sign a petition calling for an end to the “free speech zone,” a designated area on campus where students can assemble to protest.

In a video obtained by Campus Reform, a self-described watchdog group, a university official confronts the group about their petition, saying they needed to explain why the zone was created and its necessity.

“I think if you’re going to ask someone to sign a petition, it is always helpful to explain both sides of the position,” the official, identified by Campus Reform as university housing director Tim Robitz, is heard saying in the video.

The students claim they were then threatened with disciplinary action if they continued to protest, a charge the university disputes.

“First, campus public security told us we needed to move our activities to the free speech zone,” Stephanie Keaveney, a member of Students for Concealed Carry, told FoxNews.com on Tuesday. “Then, security told us they were going to call the Ashland Police Department and let the administration know we were refusing to leave.”

The free speech zone, located near the university’s student center, is confined to less than one percent of the campus, Keaveney said.

“Every person we talked to agreed with us that this is a free speech issue,” she said. “What the university was doing is unconstitutional.”

COMMENT:  This is only one example of how are kids are being taught to live, not in a free society, but in a totalitarian state.  Sadly, I must report my belief that this is intentional, that there are plenty of people in universities who have little regard for the basics of American freedom, and prefer a controlled society, as long as they can be in control.

October 16, 2014        Permalink

MORE OPTIMISM REGARDING GOP PROSPECTS ON ELECTION DAY – AT 8:51 A.M. ET:  From The New York Times, which must hate to report this: 

Republican chances of taking control of the Senate have risen to 72 percent, the highest level yet in the almost six months that The Upshot’s forecasting model has been tracking the race. The odds rose from 68 percent on Monday and from a low of 50 percent last month.

The main cause of the latest shift is new polling in Kansas, which suggests the race is now a true tossup rather than a race in which the Republican, Senator Pat Roberts, is a slight underdog. Our latest forecast gives Mr. Roberts a 52 percent chance to win in November, making the race between him and Greg Orman, an independent candidate, essentially a coin flip.

As outside money has poured into the state over the past month, Kansas is emerging as one of the most competitive Senate races of 2014. The Democratic candidate, Chad Taylor, quit the race in early September, and Mr. Orman’s chances then spiked. Mr. Orman has said he would caucus with the majority party if he won, converting a sure Republican seat into a possible pickup opportunity for Democrats.

Campaigns over the past month have been trending toward the Republicans in Arkansas, Alaska and Louisiana, and the odds of a Republican upset, though still fairly long, have also risen in Michigan and New Hampshire. To some extent, Mr. Orman’s earlier gains obscured these trends. Now that these gains may be slowing or reversing, the full effect of the erosion in the Democratic position is starting to be felt. Thus in many ways, the latest increase in the G.O.P.'s overall chances is less of a surge and more of a return to normal.

COMMENT:  But again, being the party pooper I was destined to be, I point out that almost three weeks remain in the race.  Anything can happen.  GOP leads in most states are narrow.  One big GOP scandal, and you may be sure the mainstream media is looking for it, can upset any projections.  So we wait and fight.

October 16,  2014     Permalink